All Posts

1. Market Pulse: The Trigger Before diving into the theory, let's look at three alarming data points from the market this week (2nd week of Jan, 2026): News 1: The 55% Threshold A recent report by Morningstar confirmed that passive funds (ETFs and Index Funds) now control over 55% of the total U.S. equity market . This is a historic high, surpassing the "tipping point" that many academics have long warned about. News 2: The "Rebalancing" Shock Last Friday, we witnessed mas

1. Executive Summary: The Market Mispricing While Micron Technology (MU) has hit a new all-time high of $345, my quantitative models indicate significant Upside Potential (>30%) . The market currently views Micron through the lens of a traditional cyclical peak, failing to account for the "Structural Supply Constraint" driven by the HBM transition. This report utilizes a standard Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model and a deep dive into the capacity constraints of competitors (

1. Introduction: The Psychological Barrier Collapses On January 5, 2026, the South Korean financial market witnessed a historic event. The USD/KRW exchange rate surged past the psychological resistance line of 1,450 KRW. This is not just a number; it is a siren signaling that the "old rules" of the Korean economy are no longer functioning. While government officials describe this as a temporary phenomenon caused by the "Strong Dollar" and delayed Fed rate cuts, the data sugge

A Quantitative Deep Dive using Reverse DCF & Monte Carlo Simulation In the world of investing, there are two types of companies: those backed by current cash flows, and those backed by "dreams." Rocket Lab (RKLB) is the undisputed leader of the latter camp in the space sector. As a quantitative analyst, my job isn't to buy the dream, but to calculate the probability of that dream coming true. Today, I analyzed Rocket Lab’s current valuation (approx. $18.50 ) using Reverse D

🧭 Summary KOSPI hits a record high, breaches the 4,000 mark. Tariff negotiation relief + semiconductor rally + weaker USD/KRW drive momentum. Retail investor cash balances & margin trading hit new records , signalling heavy risk‐take. “SentimentLab” model accuracy ~57% , but shines as a behavioural thermometer rather than a perfect prediction tool. 🔹 1. Market Overview Headlines are awash with terms like “bull market”, “4,000 countdown”, “record deposits”. KOSPI rallying f

Executive Summary Deere sits at the center of precision agriculture and connected heavy equipment, pairing a best-in-class hardware franchise with sticky software, parts, and a captive finance arm. I built a five-year, SOTP  valuation: a DCF  for Equipment Operations (EO) and a Residual-Income  (RI) model for Financial Services (FS), grounded in audited FY2024 figures and a down-cycle Year 1. The model’s fair-value range lands at ~$227–$583 per share  across conservative, bas

Executive Summary Palantir sits at the center of enterprise AI adoption, combining sticky government contracts with a rapidly scaling commercial platform. I built a five-year DCF grounded in audited FY2024 revenue and explicit assumptions for growth, free-cash-flow (FCF) margins, discount rate, and terminal growth. The model’s fair-value range lands at ~$10–$26 per share across conservative, base, and bull scenarios—well below the current market price—implying that investors

Between September 15 and 26, 2025 , Korea’s market mood steadied after a volatile summer.The average sentiment score rose to +1.24 , led by strong optimism on September 17 (+1.56) and September 18 (+1.88) .Even as global uncertainty lingered, the KOSPI advanced modestly from 3,407 to 3,471 (+1.9%) , while the VIX eased from 15.7 to 15.3 , reflecting calmer risk appetite.The USD/KRW rate weakened slightly from ₩1,385 to ₩1,408 , showing mild dollar strength. Overall, this

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSM) is the backbone of the global semiconductor supply chain. As investors anticipate a...

1) Introduction — Reading the Tape of Market Mood In late August 2025, Korea’s market navigated a clash of forces: a firmer dollar,...

When global investors talk about “fear in the markets,” the VIX—often called the “fear index”—is usually the first chart that comes up....

1. Introduction: From Measuring Mood to Making Predictions Gone are the days when investors relied solely on balance sheets and...

With semiconductor sector sentiment improving and global technology demand on the rise, Samsung Electronics (KRX:005930) has become a...

1. Introduction: Piercing Market Psychology with Data The paradigm of financial analysis is shifting. Gone are the days of relying solely...

At the center of the AI and cloud revolution stands Microsoft (MSFT). As the stock hits new highs, many investors are asking the same...

Introduction: The Invisible Hand, and The Invisible Sentiment While Adam Smith's "Invisible Hand" explains market efficiency, John...

Weekly Market Overview During the 7 trading days from June 18 to 27, the KOSPI climbed approximately +2.8% , showing steady upward...

A 'Joint Rally' of Positive Sentiment and Policy Expectations This week, the KOSPI demonstrated strong market resilience by showing a...

Objective Conduct an in-depth yet beginner study of the world’s most notorious market collapses—1929 Great Depression, 1997 Asian...

Objective Analyze financial market volatility and investor sentiment using news articles and social media-data, and present quantitative...