Samsung Electronics Valuation Analysis & DCF Sensitivity Forecast
- 오리 오리
- Jul 16
- 2 min read
With semiconductor sector sentiment improving and global technology demand on the rise, Samsung Electronics (KRX:005930) has become a focal point for investors. In this post, we’ll walk through:
Relative Valuation (P/E) Comparison
Intrinsic Valuation (DCF) Analysis
Sensitivity of Enterprise Value to WACC & Growth Assumptions
Our goal is to estimate a fair share price range for Samsung Electronics and illustrate how key assumptions drive valuation.
2. Relative Valuation: P/E Comparison
Samsung’s P/E of 68.5x far exceeds the industry average of 33.5x.
This premium reflects strong near‑term momentum but suggests the stock is trading above its peer valuation. Investors should be cautious of mean‑reversion risk.
3. Intrinsic Valuation: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
3.2 Free Cash Flow Projections (₩ Millions)
3.3 DCF Outputs
3.4 Implied Share Price
Net Cash: ₩93,320,000 million (negative net debt)
Shares Outstanding: 6,735,613 million
DCF Implied Price = (EV + Net Cash)
Shares= ₩43,707 per share
4. Sensitivity Analysis: WACC vs. Growth Rate
“NaN” indicates WACC = g, which makes the terminal‐value formula undefined.
Enterprise Value rises sharply when discount rates fall below growth assumptions.
Translating these EVs back to share prices yields an implied price range of roughly ₩30,000–₩60,000 depending on the scenario.
6. Conclusion & Investment Considerations
Relative Valuation: At 68.5× P/E, Samsung trades at a notable premium versus peers—consider mean‑reversion risk.
DCF Fair Value: ₩43,700 per share under base‑case assumptions, implying ~32% downside from current levels.
Sensitivity Range: Under conservative vs. optimistic scenarios, implied price spans ₩30,000–₩60,000.
Investment Strategy
Entry Range: ₩40,000–₩45,000 (capitalizing on potential mean‑reversion)
Target Range: ₩55,000–₩60,000 (reflecting more bullish industry recovery)
Risks: U.S.-China trade tensions, memory‐cycle volatility, currency fluctuations.
Final ThoughtsThis analysis integrates both market‐based multiples and fundamental cash‐flow modeling. While DCF provides a long‑term anchor, relative metrics and sensitivity tables highlight near‑term market dynamics. Combine these insights with ongoing news, earnings releases, and macroeconomic developments to make informed investment decisions on Samsung Electronics.
Comments