September Sentiment Pulse: Confidence Climbs as Volatility Fades

오리 오리
Oct 16
3 min read

Between September 15 and 26, 2025, Korea’s market mood steadied after a volatile summer.The average sentiment score rose to +1.24, led by strong optimism on September 17 (+1.56) and September 18 (+1.88).Even as global uncertainty lingered, the KOSPI advanced modestly from 3,407 to 3,471 (+1.9%), while the VIX eased from 15.7 to 15.3, reflecting calmer risk appetite.The USD/KRW rate weakened slightly from ₩1,385 to ₩1,408, showing mild dollar strength.

Overall, this period represented a quiet but confident phase, where investors became more constructive despite a softer won and elevated oil prices.

Sentiment Drivers

Semiconductor and export recovery led the positive tone.Renewed chip orders and strong second-generation battery demand kept institutional buying steady above 3,450.Momentum was reinforced by SK hynix’s next-gen memory production and improving global order visibility in display panels.

Oil and inflation context:While WTI crude rose from $74 to $77, investors focused more on export-led growth than inflation fears.Confidence was supported by the Bank of Korea’s 3.50% policy hold, signaling stability.The won’s mild weakness came mainly from external dollar strength, not domestic risks.

Quantitative Takeaways

As volatility eased and exports improved, sentiment and KOSPI rose together, while the won and VIX moved inversely.This created a classic risk-on environment, where investors embraced moderate optimism.

The average sentiment score was +1.24, the KOSPI averaged 3,446, and VIX hovered near 15.9.Meanwhile, USD/KRW averaged ₩1,392, and WTI crude was around $76, up 3% from early September.

Interpretation

The Sentiment Index near +1.2 signals measured optimism, not euphoria.This aligns with a market consolidating near highs rather than chasing new records.Sentiment peaked before the KOSPI’s late-week slowdown (September 23–24), suggesting mild cooling ahead of October’s macro data.

Tactical Playbook

Leverage ETFs — Consider KODEX 200 Leverage exposure while sentiment stays above +1.2.
FX Hedging — Use USD/KRW forwards or put options near ₩1,400 to manage risk.
Export-Focused Portfolios — Overweight semiconductors, batteries, and display sectors that benefit from KRW softness.
Volatility Management — Add put spreads on KOSPI futures if VIX drops below 15, locking in protection cheaply.

Market Forecast (Next Week & Early October)

Based on the data you provided from mid to late September —where the Sentiment Index stayed around +1.2, VIX remained near 15–16,and foreign inflows continued to support equities —the market is expected to remain in a “calm but optimistic” phase in early October.

Scenario Outlook:

Bullish ContinuationIf sentiment stays above +1.0 and volatility remains low,the KOSPI could rise toward 3,500–3,550.Tech and semiconductor sectors should continue leading the rally.→ Maintain exposure but take partial profits near resistance.
Range / Sideways MovementIf sentiment softens toward +0.6–+0.8 and foreign inflows slow,the KOSPI may fluctuate between 3,420–3,490.→ Use hedged strategies or protective puts to manage risk.
Downside RiskIf sentiment falls below +0.3 or VIX jumps above 17,a pullback toward 3,350–3,420 is possible.→ Shift to defensive names and tighten stop levels.

Key Takeaway:The sentiment level near +1.2 suggests optimism but not euphoria.KRW weakness or oil price spikes could quickly test this balance.Export performance and foreign capital flows remain the main supports.

Key News Around That Period

Exports Surge & Trade Surplus Expands
- South Korea’s exports rose 12.7% YoY in September, led by a 22% jump in semiconductor exports.
- The trade surplus widened to USD 9.56B, the largest since 2018.🔗 Reuters – South Korea Exports Surge Past Forecasts🔗 TradingEconomics – South Korea Balance of Trade
Foreign Capital Inflows Hit 19-Month High
- Foreign investors bought USD 4.34B worth of Korean equities in September,marking the largest monthly inflow in 19 months.
- Buying was concentrated in electronics and semiconductor stocks.🔗 JoongAng Daily – Foreigners Net Purchase of Korean Stocks
FX and Trade Negotiations with the U.S.
- The U.S. confirmed South Korea is not labeled as a currency manipulator, easing FX tensions.
- Seoul and Washington made “meaningful progress” in tariff discussionstied to a proposed $350B South Korean investment package.🔗 Reuters – South Korea, U.S. Reach FX Agreement🔗 Reuters – Tariff Talks Show Progress
Regional Flow & AI Momentum
- Asian equities attracted large inflows in September,supported by Fed rate-cut expectations and the global AI boom.🔗 Reuters – Asian Equities Draw Inflows

Outlook

September’s sentiment rebound captures a measured calm before potential turbulence.With optimism stable near +1.2 and volatility contained, Korea enters October with quiet momentum—but also a touch of complacency.If external shocks remain limited, the rally could extend into early Q4.However, a sharp move in oil or the dollar could quickly test whether this optimism is built on conviction—or comfor